How forward funding is being used to gut the NSF GRFP

Accounting tricks are part of a year-long assault on the 74-year old program supporting the next generation of scientists and engineers.
news
National Science Foundation
Author

Noam Ross

Published

February 24, 2026

The Trump administration cut the number of NSF Graduate Research Fellowships (GRFP) by a third in 2025 — but increased the total funds obligated for new awards. Grant Witness has found that NSF obligated 2.3 times the funds per fellowship in 2025 compared to previous years, using “forward funding” — obligating all three years of each fellowship up front rather than annually. This allows the administration to appear to spend the GRFP budget while in practice supporting far fewer students.

The GRFP has supported high-potential STEM graduate students since 1952. Over the past year the administration has waged a multi-front assault on the program: delaying the solicitation leaving only weeks to apply before deadline, narrowing eligibility, slashing the number of fellowships from 2,300 to 1,500, skewing the awards toward AI and quantum science, and rejecting applications without review.

The forward-funding shift is a tactic that the administration has used across multiple agencies to cut the number of awards while maintaining the appearance of spending the same amount of money. At the National Institutes of Health, a requirement that 50% of new awards be funded was imposed in the latter half of 2025, resulting in a 15% drop in the number of new awards according to NIH’s own analysis. The administration has also used forward funding to cut the number of awards at the Department of Energy’s Office of Science, and the Department of Defense’s research agencies.

This also shows how forward funding is being used beyond the National Institutes of Health. While the FY2026 appropriations bill put some guardrails on this strategy for NIH, it did not do so for NSF, perhaps because NSF has long used forward funding for the majority of its grants.

NIH itself describes the drop in new awards in 2025 as being to due to the increase in forward funding.

The 2022 CHIPS and Science Act reauthorized the GRFP with the target of supporting over 3,000 new fellows annually by 2026. Congress appropriated $325 million for the program in both FY2024 and FY2025. The FY2026 appropriation dropped to $285 million. With continued forward funding, we would expect only about 1,100 awards this year. The administration’s budget request was just $128 million - 60% below this the 2025 funding level and 76% below the CHIPS Act target. Combined with forward funding, this would likely have resulted in fewer than 500 new awards in 2026, fewer than any year since the program began in 1952. <–! Note, this is a bit of a stretch as the ongoing costs would be lowered. I could run some calculations to estimate this. –>

The table below shows how this works. In 2022–2024, NSF obligated roughly $110,000–$112,000 per new fellowship, consistent with funding one year of support at a time. In 2025, that figure jumped to $258,000 — more than double — even as the number of new awards dropped from over 2,000 to 1,500. Total new obligations actually rose to $387 million, the highest in the table, despite the program awarding the fewest fellows. Meanwhile, total outlays — the funds actually paid to universities — remained roughly flat around $215–$229 million across all years, reflecting that students draw down stipends at a steady rate regardless of how the obligations are structured.

New GRFP Obligations and Outlays by Fiscal Year
Fiscal
Year
New GRFP
Obligations
Total GRFP
Outlays
New GRFP
Awards
Obligation per
new Fellowship
2025 $386,745,785 $229,094,538 1,500 $257,831
2024 $228,336,076 $215,991,989 2,036 $112,149
2023 $271,552,115 $215,032,281 2,555 $106,283
2022 $245,765,637 $212,648,998 2,193 $112,068

This is not a matter of a change to who is recieving the awards or which institutions’ tuition is paid. The pattern holds at the institution level. For schools with enough GRFP history to compare over time, the amount obligated per fellowship in 2025 was 2.6 times greater than in 2022–2024. Obligations are for both new and continuing awards, but as large institutions typically have similar numbers of new and continuing fellows each year. Wwe would expect the obligation per new fellow to remain steady year-to-year. Instead, we see that the obligation per new fellow jumped dramatically in 2025 for each institution. This is consistent with a shift to forward funding for new awards in 2025.

NSF GRFP Obligations for Top 10 Institutions
Institution Obligation per
Award 2022-2024
Obligation per
Award in 2025
Ratio
Massachusetts Institute Of Technology $204,345 $435,598 2.1
University Of Washington $209,275 $388,508 1.9
Northwestern University $169,326 $531,170 3.1
California Institute Of Technology $150,777 $290,459 1.9
University Of Chicago $154,882 $503,011 3.2
Duke University $169,245 $353,961 2.1
University Of North Carolina At Chapel Hill $164,785 $407,729 2.5
Vanderbilt University $116,757 $323,942 2.8
University Of Maryland, College Park $231,789 $560,584 2.4
New York University $253,077 $465,792 1.8

NSF uses forward funding for many of its grants, and multi-year obligation can be a fiscally prudent strategy. However, the rapid shift to forward funding, as the administration has enacted here and elsewhere has the effect - and likely the intent - of cutting the number of awards while maintaining the appearance of spending the same amount of money. Even if, after a period of transition, forward-funding would cover the same number of awards, the interim period creates a permanent impact on scientific capacity, with fewer students starting careers in science.

For this reason, the administration reportedly fought hard in the FY2026 spending bill to retain the ability to use multi-year funding.

number of fellows:

The GRFP is funded out of NSF’s STEM Education accounts, which also funds education research in the STEM Education Directorate, which was targeted for massive grant terminations in 2025.

Other notes

According to the NSF GRFP Administrative Guide, “Funds on expiring awards and/or award amendments or supplements that are not fully expended are forfeited by the IHE in the absence of an NCE…. Forfeited funds will be subtracted from Fellowship funding provided in the next new award.” A no-cost extension is allowed if there are still fellows or a new fellow is expected to enroll. The first NCE does not require NSF approval, it is grantee-approved. Awardee IHEs are not authorized to extend an award that contains a zero balance. An additional NCE requires NSF approval.

Methods

We determined NSF GRFP obligations and outlays using data from USAspending.gov, downloading all awarding data for NSF GRFP awards and summing total obligations and year-end outlays for each financial year. To determine the outlays per award, we used NSF’s published list of awardees for 2022 to 2025, counted awards per institution and year, and merged these with the USAspending data.